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.If it can be tested, or better yet, if it can make predictions that no one would think of testing in the absence of the hypothesis, and if, as a result, one can betterunderstand many observations, especially observations no90 Speculationone earlier would have thought to make, then the hypothesis becomes a "theory." (Note that a theory is not "just a supposition." It is a well-supported, well-tested, andwell-accepted system of thought, which, if widely enough accepted, is sometimes termed a "natural law.")By seeing the requirements of legitimate scientific speculation, one can get a notion of the reverse of the coin.The signs of speculations and speculators that are not likely to be worth much are these:They are advanced by people who have no standing in the field and who betray a lack of knowledge of work already done.They make no use of standard terminology but make up their own terms, which are inadequately defined, and they do not use mathematical symbology where thatwould be expected.(Mathematics is almost impossible to fake, if you are not grounded in it.)No adequate way of testing their suggestions is presented, and no useful predictions are made.Arguments are flawed, or unclear, to those educated in the field.The speculator tends to be polemical and inordinately defensive.The speculator, lacking the knowledge that would enable him to build safeguards into his speculationsthat would guard against legitimate and foreseeable objections, and thus allow him to feel secure in his thinking, is apt to react angrily to unforseen or condescendingobjections (let alone abrupt dismissal) and is often so emotionally attached to his thinking that he suspects a persecuting conspiracy on the part of the "establishment."The speculator is so convinced of this that his continuing speculations often consist more of an attack on the "establishment" than a reasoned exposition of his ownviews.None of this is perfect of course.Oliver Heaviside invented his own mathematical terminology, and Nikola Tesla was a polemicist with tendencies to paranoia, but bothwere great scientists.Still, by applying these criteria, you will detect the nonvalid speculators with very few exceptions.An invalid or useless speculation, based on ignorance, is an example of "pseudoscience." "Pseudo" is from a Greek term meaning "false" or "deceiving." Pseudoscienceis false science.It is nonsense that can confuse or mislead the unsophisticated, because it has some of the trappings of science, because it uses some of the language ofscience, because it deals with some of the interests of science, and because it calls itself science.In fact, pseudoscientists, having no commitment to real science (or being unable to form such a commitment since they lack the knowledge and experience) tend to getsatisfaction from the acclaim of nonscientists and to use that as compensation for the lack of appreciation they get from scientists.Either deliberately, or unconsciously,they tend to form their thoughts in such a way as to maximize that acclaim and, as a result, pseudoscience often becomes popular indeed with the nonscientific elementsof the public.91 SpeculationSince these form the majority in terms of pure number, a pseudoscience like astrology is infinitely more popular than the true science of astronomy.Even the mostquackish-sounding beliefs, such as pyramid power or the usefulness of talking to plants, quickly gain sway over the multitude.In fact, one might almost judge theworthlessness of a scientific speculation by the extent to which it gains a hold on the public.Although pseudoscience is false science, if we reason etymologically, this is not to say that it is necessarily deliberately false science.Many a speculator who produces what true scientists in the field would, almost unanimously, consider errant nonsense is nevertheless honestly and devotedly sincere inhis beliefs.Such sincerity is not, in itself, evidence for the worth of the ideas, any more than popularity among the general public is.Nevertheless, sincerity is to berespected.Remember, too, that pseudoscience may usefully stimulate scientific investigation and reasoning, even if only to develop arguments that will counter and demolish thenonsense in question.The effort, which might not otherwise have been made, would be a useful result of the pseudoscience, and one for which we ought to be grateful.worthlessness of a scientific speculation by the extent to which it gains a hold on the public.Although pseudoscience is false science, if we reason etymologically, this is not to say that it is necessarily deliberately false science.Many a speculator who produces what true scientists in the field would, almost unanimously, consider errant nonsense is nevertheless honestly and devotedly sincere inhis beliefs.Such sincerity is not, in itself, evidence for the worth of the ideas, any more than popularity among the general public is.Nevertheless, sincerity is to berespected.Remember, too, that pseudoscience may usefully stimulate scientific investigation and reasoning, even if only to develop arguments that will counter and demolish thenonsense in question.The effort, which might not otherwise have been made, would be a useful result of the pseudoscience, and one for which we ought to be grateful.But what if one who promulgates a pseudoscientific speculation does so in the full knowledge that what he advances is nonsense? What if he does so merely to makemoney, or to gain power, or to play a practical joke, or to have the malicious fun of perpetrating mischief? For such purposes, he may even concoct or fake evidenceand maintain it to be true.What we have then are "hoaxes," and these, whether joking, malicious, or entrepreneurial, are always with us and must be guarded against.And where, in all this, does my own specialty of "science fiction" fit in?Science fiction is sometimes used as a synonym for pseudoscience, but this is quite wrong.Whereas pseudoscience passes for science, though falsely, science-fictiondoes not.Science fiction openly proclaims itself to be a product of imagination that bends its direction to the needs of science no more than it has to [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]